The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how to distinguish true signals from hype.

A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.